Thursday, May 22, 2008

Lame Hawk?

While electile dysfunction devours huge bits of American attention - certain regimes and their fanboys pay attention too. For years it was widely understood in the ME that Great Satan didn't act out militarily in an election year - or even the year before an election year. The Lame Duck syndrome.

Only since 911 though - it hasn't been so clear cut. Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed the general manager of Al -Arabiya television points out the Arab street has fell for the old Great Satan is safe as milk election year jazz before.

"Saddam Hussein was excluding the possibility of such a war, relying on the
views of Arab television analysts. They told him not to worry about the threats
and the massing of fleets. They assured him that anti-war demonstrations, public
opinion surveys, and the approaching end of the President's first term would
prevent war. How wrong they were! "

This is significant. Despite sexy Syrian risque rapprochment out reaches there is a deadly chance that Great Satan's politics aside - she could act out more like a hawk - and not so lame either.

A group, like Hezbollah did in occupying West Beirut, could upset the balance
and carry out a coup against a regime thinking that the American player is
preoccupied with the elections and the President is spending his day drinking
tea and packing his bags in preparation for returning to his state, Texas.

The second prevailing theory is that the United States has become a weak
state like Mauritania, and the time is appropriate today to punish the Americans
by serving Iran and advancing on the ground, confident that no one will do

In other words, a misunderstanding of the work mechanism in American politics
encourages adventures and promotes chaos. This is what happened with former
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein when he occupied Kuwait on the morning of 2
August 1990. He thought that he was permitted to fill the vacuum. Such incorrect
theories have led to serious tragedies.

Serious tragedies like a regime killing regime change launched at several opponents at once - especially if they feel there is a chance to act out with out restraint or even deliver an 'October surprise'

The Sept '07 Study by the Director of the School of Oriental and African Studies’ Centre for
International Studies and Diplomacy paints an interesting pic of what is sweetly hanging out ready to act out:

In recent years, hugely increased funding for military technology has taken
"smart bombs" to a new level. New "bunker-busting" conventional bombs weigh
only 250lb. According to Boeing, the GBU-39 small-diameter bomb "quadruples"
the firepower of US warplanes, compared to those in use even as recently as

A single stealth or B-52 bomber can now attack between 150 and 300
individual points to within a metre of accuracy using the global positioning
system.8 One B2 bomber dropped 80 500lb bombs on separate targets in 22
seconds in a test flight.

Using just half the available force, 10,000 targets could be attacked
almost simultaneously. This strike power alone is sufficient to damage Iranian
political, military, economic and transport capabilities. Such a strike would take "shock and awe" to a new level and leave Iran with few if any conventional military capabilities to block the straights of Hormuz or provide conventional military support to insurgents in Iraq.

The US air force can hit the last-known position of Iranian military units, political
leaders and supposed sites of weapons of mass destruction. One can be sure that, if
war comes, George Bush will not want to stand accused of using too little force and
allowing Iran to fight back. "Global Strike" means that, without any obvious signal,
what was done to Serbia and Lebanon can be done overnight to the whole of Iran.

It is likely that the United States would select a much more wide-ranging set of
attacks on Iran, since they have strategic interests in destroying Iranian
military power that go far beyond preventing Iranian acquisition of the
At 80 pages, the Sept 07 study is healthy - and a very detailed read. Electile dysfunction aside, Great Satan got claws. Like a hawk.


Nikki said...

love this post Courtney...especially electile disfunction, when none of the candidates are turning you on..haha
Yep keep it in check despots. America has ADD and we can focus on a bunch of things at once! :)N

Beaman said...


Do you think it will happen this Summer?

Winfred Mann said...

Just as we in the West have a difficult time discerning the thoughts and realities of IslamicLand, they too have an impossible task in determining which way the wind shall blow in America. They cannot comprehend Democracy, because they all live in totalitarian states, and must follow the will of the Imams (not to be confused with the I-man, Don Imus).

When Zogby, et al, run their polls (that ask the wrong questions) to ascertain the desire of the American people, and come up with "Americans want change,” they fail to ask Americans what it is they want. Americas want a “secure world.” The only impediment to a “secure world” is the aforementioned IslamicLand.

Right Truth said...

I think the Middle East may be wrong this time. Bush wants to accomplish as much as he can before he's out of office. He knows a democrat will not be as aggressive as he can be.

Debbie Hamilton
Right Truth

Findalis said...

It won't happen by Bush in his last months in office. And it won't happen if Obama gets elected any time. It might happen if McCain is elected, but I think any attack on Iran will come from Little Satan but only if Olmert is out of office.

Little Satan could do it very easily, especially if Great Satan lends her a hand. A little midair refueling, lending her a couple or dozen so of those lovely Bunker Busters, maybe some fighter escort. And Iran would be nuclear no more.

heidianne jackson said...

i'm a dinner plate was here before when, as a 'student', he participated in the taking of hostages from the american embassy in iran. that time, he (and the ayatollah khomeini) properly took the measure of the peanut farm from georgia as a weak-kneed professionl apologizer.

from the beginning of the crisis, carter sat on his hands and did nothing. even when his nsa, zbigniew brzezinski advised him to "act forcefully" carter did nothing. he was, seemingly, frozen with the fear that any action on his part would enlarge the "conflict". crikey!

he didn't even end diplomatic ties with iran (or expell the iranian diplomatic contingent) for SIX MONTHS after the hostages were taken. and then he did freeze six billion dollars in iranian assets and suspend oil imports from iran - about 4% of our oil imports. now that's a lesson they've obviously remembered!

his single attempt at freeing the hostages ocurred during his bid for re-election in april of 1980 ended in an embarassing debacle. eight dead along with seven destroyed helicoters and a c-130 transport plane.

we looked like idiots unable to defend ourselves or rescue our people from a bunch of students. especially students who had no real plan and were winging it as they went along.

perhaps that is the america that ahmadinjad thinks he is still facing. perhaps he thinks we have no better capabilities than we had in 1980.

pehaps he forgets that reagan replaced carter and gave us a military to be proud of again. perhaps he thinks that jimmy carter is still the guy in charge because he sees him all over the me so much flapping his gums.

perhpas the lesson will be come sooner for him than he knows. one can only hope...

heidianne jackson

Karen Townsend said...

I don't necessarily believe in single issue voting. However, 9/11 changed me forever. I vowed since that I will never again vote for a Presidential candidate that does not share my view of national security or show of strength.

Kumbiya is peachy, except it kills us and our friends. Our enemies view tea and talking as weakness and laugh at it.

Keep going, Courtney.

kevin said...

The rumors have been around for a couple of years, and Pelosi has made it clear in public that she doesn't approve. Indicating that may be more than just saber rattling.

Personally I think Iran has well earned it's surgical strike. A stealth lobotomy, targeting the nuclear cortex of the Persian brain would certainly help stabilize the region.

Roger W. Gardner said...

Dammit girl! This is one terrific emboldening and heartening article! Whenever I feel my optimism slipping slightly I come over here for some mid-air refueling.
And it's not just the article. It's every one of these wonderful comments too.
Thank you all for reinvigorating me.
I'm not going to use Courtney's comments section to promote my own blog -- but. I did just write about this in "The Weak Horse and the Strong Horse: America and the Fall of the Roman Empire" and we agree on practically everything.

I'm so glad I decided to jump over here tonight.

Luvya Court.
Keep it up!