Thursday, September 24, 2009

Beau Coup?

“Before all else, be armed.”

One of Great Satan's fav concepts in war making is shaping tactical and strategic environs.

Close analysis of recent events may indicate that Pentagon is shaping the environ about AFPAK in a lo down ho down with 44.


After 27 March -- when 44 announced a new strategy to be known as AFPAK (which honestly seemed more PAKAF than AFPAK) Def Sec Gates dutifully hit the scene in Afghanistan and rather unceremoniously sacked General McKiernan and replaced him with General McChrystal.

General McK was a panzer commander of long standing - yet like all Great Satan's Generals - could handle other stuff equally well.

General McC is a Green Beret, a real live snake eating, throat slitting, super especial ops ninja that has mastered asymmetrical warfare as an art form.

Sweet indeed is the happy fact that General McC was large and in charge and in the flesh in Iraq to ensure that the last thing al Zarqawi ever saw (before trekking off to the perfumed Gardens of Paradise) was the embodiment of Great Satan - an American GI sticking an M 16 in his face, enjoying -- savouring -- al Zarqawi's last breath in a hopefully agonizing death.

Placed in command of developing and implementing a winning Surge in Afghanistan, General McC faithfully did the gig. With a needed influx of a rowdy Teuffel Hunden posse, the New Surging General took the fight to the poppy rich fields of Helmand killing killers, dope dealers and their cadre of heroinistic enablers.

As the environs were shaping up - Ex General Jones at NSA reminded several Pentagon cats that asking for more of the most proficient, volunteer, humanitarian, all weather killers of killers in history could spark a Whiskey Tango Foxtrot Moment for 44 and his intellectual posse of academics and theorists.

Since McChrystal's assessment of what all it would take to make Taliban and al Qaeda scream "GOD! PLEASE! STOP!" has been released to 44 for three weeks at least - nothing much was heard from Commander In Chief.

So as Americans --the pride of our nation, semi surges -- in dark, scary places in the world where a girls school could get a girl a face full of acid -- 44's inactivity (sans stuff like health something reform, Little Satan's apartment boom in West Bank, energy policies - you know -- all the stuff that really wouldn't matter if a T type attack struck Great Satan) must be maddening.

Since her founding -- Great Satan has always enjoyed civilian control of the military. Even the mere thought of a coup, junta or putsch is unthinkable -- shocking even.

Hold up - it gets better.

In Foreign Policy Land there is a coercive concept called 'carrots and sticks' -- essentially if nation state actors act in a cool way -- carrots are presented to reinforce and continue desired behaviour. If nation state actors act out in an uncool way - break out the sticks for a thrashing.

Just as 44 heads off to the World's Capital City to save the world, hang out with the Not Hot League of Autocrazies and the Despots 'R' Us designer cats, General McChrystal's assessment magically shows up in the WaPo.

Playing catch up with 44's Late Night unconvincing horse and cart analogy, Pentagon countered and let slip that General McC may just say "... 44 ain't serious - so I'm splitting."

Whoa! This kinda sorta coup to force 44's hand has so far only shown the sticks.

Classified bits of General McC's assessment may include a tempting carrot or two for 44.

Capturing OBL:

Hey, General McChrystal is an especial ops cat after all -- in Iraq he led the hunter killer teams that tracked down intolerant jerks, creeps and killers and assured them quick and easy access to death, destruction and misery.

A temptation for 44 to be the cat who captured or took out AQ's Super villans like OBL and al Zawahiri or Taliban's Mullah Omar would be powerful meds for a president who has accomplished little at home or abroad.

And the home front may be a total bust anyway. A high Prestige Victory like this could be a game changer in any presidential endeavor. A worthy tease, it would also have the happy benefit of satiating all but the most rabid anti war -- any war collective.

Securing Land of the Pure's nuclear arsenal:

If Taliban and al Qaeda allies made a desperate Surge of their own - it could conceivably carry them right on through the hallowed gates of Wah Cantonment where the majority of Pakistan's nukes are held.

Determination to win in AFPAK may just be Pakistan's best bet to survive (albeit as a failing fakebelieve nation state).

Diplomatic Power:

Bulking up Great Satan's cadre of the most experienced war fighters in world history in AFPAKland would be a powerful diplo-politi-tary card to wield in any jawflapping sexercise (profitable or nonprofit) with Iran.

Encirclement by Great Satan may not be the rant of the day from Mullahopolis --yet they can certainly read a map. Powerful units in Iraq, Afghanistan, forward contingents in theatre are formidable reminders that Iran could suddenly become the unluckiest nation state on the planet.

44's FoPo thus far has been rather underwhelming. Going all the way with AFPAK could be a tough caveat for signal readers in Tehran. It could also be negotiated away like the Eastern Europa Missile Shield.

"Managing expectations over Afghanistan today is the most effective way of salvaging America’s reputation (not to mention the President’s own re-election) tomorrow.

"Irrespective of the future course of action in Afghanistan, the White House should not wait much longer before coming up with an “inoculation strategy” (as they say in comspeak) that will pre-empt future foreign attempts to equate an American withdrawal with a U.S. retreat or a U.S. defeat."

Total Control of The Heroin Trade:

Instead of trashing and destroying vile poppies -- instead secure the fields along with refinement and distribution centers. As a strategic resource, heroin trafficking -- to a certain -- green mindset -- could seem way less destructive than oil or natural gas reserves.

Using just the threat of heroin as a strategic resource like OPEC and oil -- or Commonwealth and energy could be a super soft power tool in the old tool box as well as yet another concession to bargain away in any engagements with Iran, Pakistan, Commonwealth -- even China.

Pentagon's exceptional coup -- so far only showcasing sticks -- comes from exceptional cats who believe nothing is ever truly random.

Taking their day gigs deadly seriously and shaping the environs for this confrontation may very well indicate they have provided 44 with a way out and a way for Great Satan to act out.

Not so much tilt as somersault the tide of war against fans, friends and enablers of al Qaeda and Taliban right in their own front yard - the very territory on which al Qaeda trained and attacked us on September 11th.

Pic "7 Days in May"


Robert Pearson said...

Don't know what the comments were Stacy, but I must say thanks for linking here, I am digging this site--kinda like if Clausewitz married a female Hunter Thompson and they had a girl who grew up to be a cross between Sgt. York and a hip hop artist...

I'm grokking it.