Saturday, August 14, 2010

Dongfeng 21D

One of the many hot! functional symbolic symbols of Great Satan's fun functional hyper puissance is the same critter that swept the seas of Nipponese naval naughtiness and set the stage for the creation of l'era moderne.

The American aircraft carrier is an awesome piece of peace projection - often toting about tons of hurt and regret on a global prowling scale that can sieze total air dominance in any environ and could actually annihilate most creeps along with their regimes over a long weekend.

Sweetly cuddled up with attending attendant ships, Great Satan's Carrier Battle Groups send a wonderful signal to friends, frienemies and far field competitors.

When old news became new news about Collectivist China's Carrier Killer chicanery in the form of a nasty little missiling minion nom d'guerr'd "DongFeng 21D" (East Wind 21D in Sinospeak ), cool cats were quick to cant how dangerous this be otch be bay bee.

CNAS' super psychic Dr Cronin (Oh! He got game!) shared up smoking hot Dongfeng deets

"The DF 21D, represents the first post-Cold War capability that is both potentially capable of stopping our naval power projection and deliberately designed for that purpose."

This is significant - mainly because Dongfeng will be a super hot item - a puissant prestige piece d'resistance of desperate despots the world over:

Great Satan and China may never have to face off and face the balloon going up over NoKo or Taiwan yet a sitch may arise where Dongfeng may be deployed for attack anywhere Chinese customers may determine.

Streaking towards target at 10 times the speed of sound, Dongfeng could tote either conventional or even new clear payloaded warheads — and most likely be fired off in salvos.

So, is it time to for Great Satan to xform her carriers into laptops, stripper poles and floating hostels for the homeless?

Hold up comrade admiral!

As best understood, warfighting weapon tech advances don't always mean the end of an era - torpedos didn't mean the end of the battleship, bunker busters haven't made bunkers passe', panzerschrek anti panzermissiles haven't killed off panzers on the battlefield and SAM's haven't ran combat jets off the screen.

"...Time of flight for 900 miles would be on the order of 12-15 minutes, depending on the trajectory. Launch warning from U.S. satellite systems would be nearly instantaneous, and in the remaining ten minutes or so, the carrier can travel 6-8 miles in any direction. This, combined with any errors in the track file, creates what is called an “error ellipse,” which increases over time.

"...To overcome the error ellipse, the DF-21 is presumably equipped with a maneuvering reentry vehicle and a terminal guidance seeker (either radar or IR). This not only drives up the cost and complexity of the missile, it creates additional points of failure that will reduce the overall reliability of the system.

"...Assuming, however, that everything works as advertised, the terminal guidance seeker has a limited field of view (called a basket), and must be directed to a point in space that places the target within that basket.

"...To ensure that this happens, the Chinese would probably fire a salvo of several missiles into the error ellipse, so that at least one missile would pick up the target.

And if Dongfeng lucked out and found a carrier - she'd still have to dodge, evade and make her way through of gauntlet of no quarter players designed to intercept her.

"...Electronic and infrared jamming; decoy deployment; maneuvering; and, of course, shooting back.

"...Standard Missile SM-3 now deployed on Ticonderoga class cruisers and Improved Arleigh Burke class destroyers was designed specifically to engage theater ballistic missiles in their midcourse (free-fall) phase; they have proven very effective in tests. Each cruiser and destroyer will, presumably, carry a dozen or more of these missiles for the defense of the carrier.

"...Plus a shorter-range missile based on the Army's Patriot PAC-3 for "terminal defense."

"...The AEGIS fire control system's Cooperative Engagement Capability will allow the netting of all the sensors in the battle group with external sensors (satellites, reconnaissance aircraft, land-based tracking radar, etc.) to obtain an early and optimal firing solution on any incoming missiles. Assuming two SM-3s and two short-range missiles are aimed at each incoming DF-21, a kill probability in excess of 90 percent is likely.

And if Dongfeng made it through with her honor intact?

"...If it has a conventional warhead, probably not enough to sink the ship, though it might do serious damage. A lot depends on how large its explosive payload is, how fast it is moving when it hits, and where on the ship it impacts.

"...The only way to ensure a carrier kill is to use a nuclear warhead--and if the Chinese do that, all bets are off.

Pic "Dongfeng way better than No Dong"


Justin said...

I agree the DF-21 mod D has been hyped but it's not been hyped by the Chinese themselves but by idiots in the media.

and for analysis by someone who actually studies nukes and ICBMs.

Bartender Cabbie said...

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