Friday, February 18, 2011

Supreme Authority

Learn it! Live it! Love it!

"Violence is the supreme authority - from which all authority is derived"

As best understood, unarmed civilians are no match for a well motivated M60 crew - or a squad of ppl smushing panzers. 

The rowdy ex Persian province of Bahrain has certainly internalized Pharoh For Life Hosni's switcheroo unrevolutionary adventure that got him semi retired while the unchanged regime rules intact.

Don't goof off hoping for the best - use force right off the bat and avoid any conflicting signals that will only result in despots and their posse catching the last jet out of Darling Leader Internat'l Aerodrome. 

Super strategic tyrannies (horrid or benign ) that clung to in the ancient realpolitik era have a bit more leeway - they truly believe the regime can kill their ppl on the streets and indulge Great Satan with suck up rapprochement after the smoke clears, shell casings policed, bodies toted off and blood washed away.

The tiny tiny oil rich island nation - 238,300 barrels per day - is also fully stocked with Shia yet lucky enough to have the Sunni al Khalifa family as royal sovereigns.

And Bahrain is also home hood for Great Satan's 5th Fleet, a significant arsenal in Great Satan's warcraft hyperpuissance

One scenario that may be in play is that Iran has a hand in the protests and demonstrations  

"....The Arab sheikhdoms are militarily weak; there's nothing they can do to fight back. And lest we forget, Iran is the only true local power in the Gulf. If the United States were to reduce its presence in the region, Iran, without serious impediment, could intimidate the Gulf Arabs into accepting Iranian suzerainty over the Gulf's waters.

"...Worst-case scenario, this is where we end up: Bahrain would be the first Arab sheikdom to fall under Iran's control, and as Bahrain goes, so goes the Persian Gulf. With its 70 percent Shia population, gaining control of the country would only be a matter of Iran inciting its Bahraini Shia proxies to declare the end of the monarchy and then stepping in with armed force to support the new "legitimate" government.

"...The other sheikdoms, too, would not take much to topple. They are largely unpopular regimes and militarily weak. The Shah's Iran already seized three islands from the United Arab Emirates in the 1970s. A taste of what's to come? If Iran and the United States come to blows, it is almost certain that Tehran would consider a putsch to take over Dubai, not unlike the Bahrain scenario. 

 Pic - "How long can we hold on to another ugly status quo? It’s really about how bad the change will get the longer we wait."


Anonymous said...

Damn - are you psychic? This is like the third time I know of that you've hinted at something - and within a few days or hours like case - it has happened.