Sunday, March 28, 2010

Crisis Simulation

Ah yes - the Iran Wargames.


"Simulations compress time and often oversimplify events.

"Often they underestimate the risk of error — for example, that by using faulty intelligence leaders can misinterpret a random act as part of a pattern of aggression.

"In this case, the actions of the American and Israeli teams seemed fairly plausible; the players knew the bureaucracy and politics of both countries well.

"Predicting Iran’s moves was another matter, since little is known about its decision-making process.

Exactly correct

"Iran, while wounded, sees long-term opportunities to unify its people - and to roll over its opposition parties - on nationalistic grounds. Its strategy is to mount low-level attacks on Israel while portraying the United States as a paper tiger - unable to control its ally and unwilling to respond to Iran.

"Convinced that the Saudis had colluded with the Israelis, and emboldened by the measured initial American position, Iran fires missiles at the Saudi oil export processing center at Abqaiq, and tries to incite Shiite Muslims in eastern Saudi Arabia to attack the Saudi regime.

"Iran also conducts terror attacks against European targets, in hopes that governments there will turn on Israel and the United States.

"After a meeting of its divided leadership, Iran decides against directly attacking any American targets - to avoid an all-out American response

Nuance is a very fine thing - subtle perhaps - and Iran has conducted T type operations against hapless Euro powers before (kidnapping British sailors in broad daylight comes to mind) but plotting and projecting terrorist activities even with those wonderfully credibility denying proxies could also function as a death sentence for the Regime.

And this is the schwerpunkt of any sexed up war games.

Instead of focusing on wmd Witchcraft, enrichment interruptus etc - focus on killing the regime itself, it's precious assets, super stars regional and at home like Revo Guard HQ, al Qods HQ, and Beeseeji Command

Hiz'B'Allah would almost certainly be deployed in a wide variety of activities from local to world wide scale, so HBA should be on the rec'ving end of a nasty, unannounced 1st strike surprise on day one.

Great Satan should prep for a regime killing regime change and that means a heavy dose of v. Clausewitz, outside the box thinking, legal chicanery, hybrid 4th Generational warfare and becoming cold blooded about xforming asymmetrical warfare into an art form.

Pic - "By Day 5, Iran is completely paralyzed - unable to respond or retaliate - the Regimes highest levels missing in action" with Avril