Friday, June 18, 2010

AFPAK Forecast

Sweet! Major Michael Few is one of Great Satan's premier Army Combat Rock Stars - that put the 'urge' in Surge - on a company level. A highly decorated veteran (certain rumors whisper none higher) of four Operation Iraqi Freedom tours of duty, he's recently gigged at Naval Postgraduate School as a Defense Analyst and currently hangs out with the world famous All Americans paratroop division.

Major Few was gracious enough to exclusively share some hard won expertise, insights and intell about the AFPAK Surge with GrEaT sAtAn"S gIrLfRiEnD.

Is Marjah currently a schwerpunkt for Teufel Hunden?

"...I certainly hope not, but it does have everyone's panties in a wad right now. I'm not sure why. Many of us at SWJ predicted this struggle last summer. COIN is a slow, nasty business.

"...Full disclosure - one of my good buddies ran Helmand Province by himself with a 10 man SF team for two years before the British took over. They were doing just fine back then. Same issues applied. The Marines will get the job done just on their own timeline and in their own way.

Why are those pop pop poppy fields immune from confiscation, control or destruction?

"...That's just part of the realities of small wars. Time is always against the side of the host nation once a guerrilla has risen to significant strength. The poppy fields are not immune to destruction.

"...We simply choose not to invoke the level of violence needed to eradicate them. Same reasoning applies to the guerrilla. These matters are costly and time consuming without guarantees of success.

What happens next?

"...The summer and fall will be bloody. I have some good friends in the worst of places sorting through it now on the BCT and Co command levels. I've always been within two degrees of separation in that regard.

"...Three of the top five commanders that I've ever served with are there right now- LT GEN William H. Caldwell, BG Ben Hodges, and COL Andrew Poppas in key areas of responsibilities. We've sent the first string. I'm just frustrated that I had to sit this one out from too many concussions.

"...Courtney- here's my best guess for A'stan over the next year. COL Poppas will pacify RC-East through a campaign of hate over love. After many casualties, the Marines will work towards a treaty in RC-South. After many more deaths, GEN McChrystal will unleash SOF throughout Khandahar and Pakistan.

"...By October, the Taliban will retreat for the winter, and we will declare victory. By next summer, we will withdraw and turn the mission over to the SF boys (a CJSOTF plus) as should have been done in 2002 and last summer to concentrate on FID with a renewed State Department effort.

Major, sir - very appreciative for all your achievements and endeavors. Glad you're on our side! Your writing at SWJ is incredibly good, sir - are you considering unleashing memoirs?

"...Thank you. Hopefully in the next couple of years, I'll be able to merge all my thoughts into a coherent book. It's the hardest thing that I've ever attempted- emotionally exhaustive as it were.

"... In the best case scenario, in five years we'll have books by Niel Smith, Crispin Burke, Jim Gant, Jimmy Smith, and Nate Springer to tell the tale of war from a commander's perspective. We'll see.

"...Keep up the good work and please relax on the use of sir. Starbuck will get jealous :).

Pic "Sometimes you bring them the love. Sometimes you bring them the hate.”