Thursday, January 28, 2010

Persian Trap?

Cato's Stanley Kober gets outside the box:

"In this chess game, the Iranian nuclear program is like a pawn Tehran relentlessly pushes forward. In chess, a pawn that reaches the end of the board can be exchanged for a more powerful piece - a queen. But that almost never happens. No skilled player would allow an opponent to advance a pawn that far.

"Could that be Iran's strategy? Could the nuclear program be a sacrificial pawn, designed to provoke an attack, which Tehran hopes would then set in motion a series of events that would lead to its triumph? The idea seems fantastic. Nevertheless, it deserves some consideration, especially since there is a recent precedent that may be relevant.

"In the 2006 war in Lebanon, Hiz'B'Allah stunned Israel when it fired an anti-ship missile at an Israeli gunboat that had been shelling Beirut.

"Significantly, Hiz'B'Allah did not use the anti-ship missile to deter an attack. It did not tell the Israelis: You keep your ships away from Beirut because we can sink them.

"Instead, it kept the presence of this weapon secret - not an easy thing to do. It lured the ship into a trap, and almost succeeded in sinking it.

"But to do that, it made a conscious decision to sacrifice, albeit to a limited degree, the people of Beirut. Hiz'B'Allah allowed the ship to shoot first, taking advantage of Israeli overconfidence, and then unleashed its response.

"Could the nuclear program be following the same pattern? Certain aspects of Iran's behavior suggest the idea needs to be considered.

"First, there is the very provocative Iranian program of Holocaust denial. One would think that if Iran's leaders were serious about getting the bomb, they would stay quiet until they had the bomb.

"Instead, they are behaving in a way bound to antagonize those sitting on the other side of the chess board. The Israelis, in particular, view the campaign of Holocaust denial as an implicit threat, which reinforces their determination that Iran should not get the bomb.

"In addition, Iran has been engaging in a vast conventional arms buildup- at least according to the Iranian press, which regularly reports on new weapons and military exercises. Iran has also re-supplied Hezbollah, which now is better equipped than it was in 2006.

"Iran cannot win a nuclear war; it would be destroyed in retaliation. A conventional war holds no such danger, and any attack would likely unite the Iranian people in defense of their country.

"The political impact in the region could also be profound. This would be the third attack by a Western country on a Muslim one in just a few years. Whatever the justifications for each war, three in such a short time would almost certainly enhance the impression that Islam itself is under siege.

"That impression could be bolstered by developments in Jerusalem. In the past few weeks, there have been confrontations around the holy sites.

"If there is an incident in Jerusalem at the same time there is an attack on Iran, it is difficult to see how a regional explosion could be avoided. Israel might then truly face an existential threat.

"In attempting to prevent the crowning of the Iranian pawn, we should also be conscious of the dangers of a sacrificial pawn. That is, after all, what any good chess player would do.

Art "Sacrifice" by Gaia


Avraham said...

that is the smartest analysis of the situation I have ever heard.

Render said...

Israel has faced an existential threat every single day since 1948. The names and tactics change from time to time, but the threat remains. I seriously doubt that Ahmadinnerjacket considers his nuke program to be a pawn. It's the center piece (the King) of his Twelver ambitions.

Otherwise, not a bad piece.

Certainly not as bad or badly informed as this one from Mr. Kober...

...which doesn't so much answer questions about Afghanistan as it asks a series of easily answered questions.

Like, "Where does the Talib get its ammo?"

Local FATA craftsmen make the small arms ammo and many of the small arms themselves up to and including 14.5mm/23mm and RPG rockets and warheads. The heavier weapons and ammo all come from China via both willing and unwilling sources inside the Pakistani Army.

The word of the day for the AfPak theater is "Shinwari."

The word of the decade for the Iran theater is "Twelver."