Monday, February 8, 2010

Wargaming Iran

Oh Snap! Recent wargames involving Iran all point to the same end:

Best for Great Satan to avoid action at all costs, surrender now and cede Syria, Lebanon, Little Satan, Jordan, Egypt, The Gulf States, Iraq, Yemen and Saudiland to the undefeatable Preacher Command and all their Revo Guard/al Qods cats.

Of the three sexercises conducted - one in partic seems to have jammed themselves up beyond all repair. The Harvard/Kennedy/Belfer game should be held totally suspect.

"Reported results included:

•The United States could not get any meaningful support for sanctions.

•Russia and China -- both of which will be key players if sanctions are to work -- conducted secret negotiations with Iran.

•The U.S.-Israeli relationship deteriorated dramatically during the game, leading to a deep diplomatic crisis.

•Iran saw itself in a strong position and played accordingly.

•Iran emerged better off at the end of the game than it had been at the beginning.

"By December 2010, it had doubled its supply of low-enriched uranium and was proceeding to weaponization.

"According to one participant, Iran "never felt seriously threatened" and could "win" the game easily. Indeed, most observers would probably characterize the outcome as a win for Iran and a defeat for the United States and Israel.

1st off - recruiting notorious Great and Little Satan hating Professor Walt to do the gig as Def Sec Gates is effing you know whated.

Even the thought of selecting the creator of "Weenie Hut Juniors" as Def Sec should have obviously queered the mix on anything that would have changed the status quo in Great Satan's (or any of her allies) favor - indeed - the guy most likely worried about the wrong thing (like binding Great Satan with Internat'l Accords) than focusing on his real fakebelieve gig - annihilating Mullahopolis' ability or desire to make war.

Gossip is that Dore Gold played BiBi - Little Satan's PM and Nicky Burns played 44. Gary Sick did the gig as Preacher Command and kicked major assets.

"The simulated world of December 2010 looks ragged and dangerous. If the real players truly mean to contain Iran and stop it from getting the bomb, they need to avoid the snares that were so evident in the Harvard game."

The two other games by Brookings and Little Satan's Institute for National Security Studies brought up similiar concerns:

That reinforce other analyses suggesting that diplomacy and sanctions will not work. This leads to certain conclusions.

First, the Great Satan "must "play" differently in the coming months than the participants who represented it in these simulations. Current U.S. policy seemed to fail in each game, leaving the situation worse in several dimensions: Iran was undeterred (even strengthened), relations with Israel were in crisis, and international support was lacking.

"Accordingly, the United States and others must conceive and develop new, more robust initiatives (e.g., strong support for regime change).

"Second, the United States must plan for military action, either by itself, with others, or in the wake of unilateral Israeli strikes. Both the military and the public should be prepared for the consequences of these scenarios. These preparations must be carried out with the full understanding that the military option is practicable -- and, at the end of the day, may well be the required course of action.

"Third, the results of these games are likely disturbing for Israel, indicating that its leaders should prepare both diplomatically and militarily to go it alone. A decision to strike could be the most fateful since the state's founding. Israel needs to ready its military not just for a raid or operation, but also for an extended war on multiple fronts and deep within the homeland.

"Likewise, the civilian population should prepare itself for the disruption and casualties of such a conflict. Israel already appears to be moving in this direction, and that course seems wise given the outcome of the war games.

"Time is running out.

Yes, yes and yes.

Great Satan should prep for a regime killing regime change and that means a heavy dose of v. Clausewitz, outside the box thinking, legal chicanery, hybrid 4th Generational warfare and becoming cold blooded about xforming asymmetrical warfare into an art form.


Avraham said...

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It is amazing how much information and good analysis you can pack into a few short paragraphs

Peter said...

I do not understand why Iran has a military at all. Back in '03 after we took Baghdad we had 'em surrounded on three sides with Zoomies and Rotorheads, not to mention Redlegs, all who just love to see explosions.

We missed a great chance to clean out that whole area. Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria, too. If we had simply done the Cump Sherman in Georgia act and gone through like a giant threshing machine, left a note saying "play nice or we'll be back" and come home we wouldn't be having these troubles today. It would be really nice if everyone would love us all because we are so cool. Since that isn't going to happen I'll settle for abject fear. Those sumnobeeches should just wet their drawers from just thinking about us.

courtneyme109 said...

thanks for noticing no one!

Hi Peter, yeah Sherman had game no doubt! There was some talk of doing Syria and Iran both around the sandstorm time in Op Iraqi Freedom - and the idea was totally Shermanesque

Peter said...

Courtney, if you ever get a chance, study Cump sherman. He was more than a giant threshing machine, he also had damned light casualties, considering the day.

That war, BTW, was where the US Military began studying the conservation of troops. By WW2 the Germans were amazed at how, where they would send a platoon of infantry to take out a troublesome machine gun nest, we would use a barrage of artillery rounds.

Cump Sherman perfected the doctine of leaving a light force to face a numerically superior force and then go 'round them with his main force, cutting them off from supplies.

This, of course, was used by Douglas MacArthur in the Pacific when he started that long march to Japan. A lot of Marines would have come home if Mac had also run the Central Pacific fight instead of Chet Nimitz. That is something that is difficult for a Texan to say, BTW)