Thursday, December 9, 2010

Non Profit Jawflapping

Say what?

"Jaw jaw is way more better than war war" - to paraphrase the late great Sir Winnie. And in the pre new clear age - conventional tete' a tete'  was def preferential to conventional war.

The forever quest to partake of productive parlay with the Gay Free faux Republic of Iran's Preacher Command and Praetorian Guard is kinda wack since old Europe has been forever doing the enrichment interruptus entente nom d'guerr'd the P5+1 (Russia, China, France, Great Britain, Great Satan plus - Deutschland)

And Iran will most likely swing both ways:

"...For Iran, it is a way of demonstrating that it does not reject diplomacy, though it is not willing to make substantive concessions to make discussions productive.

"...The basic problem, besides mutual mistrust, is that their approaches are incompatible.  The P5+1 want to make progress in small steps (e.g. a fuel swap) to build confidence and reduce the underlying mistrust to tackle the harder issues.

"...Iran, in contrast, sees compromise as denoting weakness leading inexorably to catastrophe. It therefore wants to be sure of the entire game-plan, the end point, and the road map toward an eventual grand bargain, before committing itself to anything.

Ah - yet another exercise in non Profit Jawflapping. Kinda like Palestine deja vu, nicht wahr?

"... First, there is no common agreement on what purpose negotiations serve; for the P5+1 it is to test Iranian flexibility on limiting its nuclear programme, in light of the technical difficulties it is experiencing and the tightening of sanctions since June 2010.

"...Further complicating matters, the two sides do not agree on their respective power positions; each is convinced the other is weakened and, if pressed, will make concessions.

"...Both sides are also politically constrained. Ahmadinejad differentiated himself from his predecessors by scorning their attempts to meet the West halfway and demonstrated Iran had nothing to fear from ‘strategic defiance.’ His domestic critics are in no mood to reward him now by supporting his attempt at overtures to the West, designed to strengthen his position at home. 44's admin is also unable to loosen its position for fear of domestic criticism (especially after the midterm election setbacks) as well as the reluctance of interested foreign hardliners such as Little Satan.

"...In principle the outline of an essential agreement is clear enough: engagement plus criticism on human rights, terrorism, etc. and acceptance of Iran’s right to determine its own system and to (some level of) enrichment but with intrusive inspections. 

 "...Some long-range thinking has to replace the tactical approaches which are politically convenient for the US administration. No administration wants to have to choose between an Iranian bomb and bombing Iran. 

"...But faith in sanctions and internet attacks to stop/reverse the nuclear programme appear feckless in the extreme.

Pic - "Less focus on the gun, and more focus on the bandit trying to obtain the gun."