Friday, July 2, 2010

Twilight Scenarios

Long time friend and super source for that wild and wacky ME - where the men are often medieval and the girls endure it, is BlackHawk Partners (biz'ness is war!) President/CEO Ziad Abdelnour.

As gossip that Preacher Command is fixing to deploy an early warning radar system in Lion of Syria's turf, Prez Z recently pointed out that the hot cold war betwixt neighboring nation/states and non state actor outers was heading towards twilight - and that a hot shooting war would be the new night

"...It is a fact that at no time in recent Middle East history have the interests of Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and now the new kid on the block; Turkey, been so aligned.

"...And each of those 4 groups bring important assets to the table of the Middle East. Iran is an energy rich Gulf power with an important nuclear card in hand; Turkey is an emerging Euro-Asian power with NATO membership; Syria is an Arab nation with major influence in Lebanon; and Hezbollah; Iran’s proxy in the region, is the power hungry thug whose obsession is to teach Israel a lesson at any cost.

"...Add those 4 forces together with a common agenda (i.e.: eradication of Israel, ousting of the US presence from the Middle East and annihilation of the Gulf regimes friendly to the US) to Israel’s plans for a definitive war in Lebanon as part of a core military outlook that sees the demonstration of overwhelming military power against intransigent opponents who are resolutely against peace as the only route to security, and you have a recipe for disaster

"...Logic is also clear: that there is a real risk of another war before too long - and that this will be a double war, against both Iran and Hezbollah.

Whoa! say it ain't so!!

Predicting and war gaming stuff is admittedly a clairvoyant art form (Oh Snap!)

"...Iran if attacked will respond by bombing all oil refineries of the Gulf States. It will close the strait of Hormuz, which almost third of the world’s oil needs passes through. Consequentially, driving oil prices to astronomical prices, crippling any hope for an economic recovery for the U.S. and the world’s alike.

"...On the same note, I would foresee smaller attacks like the recent thwarted Times Square car bombing will become the norm for the foreseeable future. I would even see the possibility of them being laced with nuclear waste.

"...Notwithstanding the fact that the string of recent terrorist attacks triggered by U.S. incursions into Pakistan and its government's support of them could very well destabilize the central government, and put its nuclear arsenal and waste in the hands of people with the worst of intentions.

"...China in particular will not be happy about this end result. The U.S. will suffer greater backlash from the Muslim World. Iran will use this backlash against Americans and fund and facilitate greater terrorist attacks against American interest worldwide. The disruption in oil flow and the rise in prices will automatically be blamed on the American adventure, harming further America’s image and accelerating China’s ascendance to the position of a wiser world superpower.

Arab League cost

"...Arab governments will not be spared from this war either. Opted to host some of the American military bases, the Gulf States will be at the forefront in this conflict. Damage to its oil infrastructure will be enormous. Any perceived notion that these Sunni governments are aiding on destruction of a Shiite nation, it is bound to stir the emotions of the Shiite minority within these nations, leading to what is likely be a sectarian division among the population, and possibly armed conflict. Descending further into chaos and creating an uncertainty of the final outcome of the war.

"...Iraq’s militias will not hesitate in exporting ethnic violence to neighboring countries. In a depressed global environment, reforms deflate or collapse due to a lack of attention to the root cause of internal issues and a tendency for governments to focus on short-term stability at the expense of long-term solutions. Caught in a shifting, violent environment, the GCC countries now blinded and unable to navigate their way out of the mess created by war will lose trillions of dollars in the process.

Iranian cost

"...Iran will undoubtedly be the major loser. It will suffer great infrastructure damage, great number of deaths, and surely an even bigger damage to its political and economic structure that could lead to a complete collapse of the regime, similar to what we have seen in Iraq and Afghanistan. Since the battleground will be the Iranian soil, Iranian resistance and its conduct of the war will be similar to the Iraq War (if there is a ground invasion, thus far, not a single hawk has even alluded to it). Long, Bloody, and without any concrete and achievable strategic goals that could be ensured for the future. Iranians will have to rebuild their country anew.

Little Satan's cost

"...Israel has already prepared for such a scenario. Israel has distributed tons of gas masks for its population. Israeli officials announced on many occasions that the country has an unsettled score against Hezbollah and Syria. An Attack on Iran will start another front on the northern border of Israel, regardless of who will instigate it. The result of which is unpredictable, especially after what Israel had suffered in the 2006 war against Hezbollah politically and militarily.

"... Under normal circumstances, other Arab countries wouldn’t get involved in war to rescue Hezbollah. If it involves the entire country of Lebanon and Syria, however, the stakes will be high and the governments will be under extreme pressure from their populations. They will find themselves either crumbling, or politically or otherwise involved in the conflict.

Pic "In Twilight Praise Of Wars Of Choice"


Peter said...

So, Iran and company is trying to force Israel "into the sea". It's not a ral good idea to force a little guy with a gun into the corner. And the little guy, Israel, has someplace between one and two hundred nukes. That's a mighty big gun.

Medium Term Note said...

This is good information and black hawk partners, Ziad, is right business is out right War!